Demobilizing Democrats and Labor Unions: Political Effects of Right to Work Laws∗

Labor unions play a central role in the Democratic party coalition, providing candidates with voters, volunteers, and contributions. Has the recent decline of organized labor hurt Democrats? We use the enactment of right-to-work laws—which weaken unions by removing closed shop protections—to estimate the effect of unions on politics from 1980 to 2016. Comparing counties on either side of a state and right-to-work border to causally identify the effects of the state laws, we find right-to-work laws reduce Democratic presidential vote shares by 4-6 percentage points. We find similar effects in US Senate, US House, and gubernatorial races, as well as state legislative control. Turnout is also 2 to 3 percentage points lower in right-to-work counties after those laws pass. We explore mechanisms behind these effects, finding that right-to-work laws dampen labor campaign contributions to Democrats and that likely Democratic voters are less likely to be contacted to vote in right-to-work states. The weakening of unions also has large downstream effects both on who runs for office and state legislative policy. Fewer working class candidates serve in state legislatures and state policy moves in a more conservative direction following the passage of right-to-work laws. ∗We thank John Marshall and Suresh Naidu as well as participants in the Columbia University Political Science Department Junior Faculty Workshop and the American Politics Workshop at the University of California, Santa Barbara for very helpful feedback.